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Elliott wave theory holds that markets move in repeating cycles of five waves up and three waves down, and Fibonacci ratios are widely used to gauge how deep a pullback might run and how far a move might extend. Both are tools for capturing a market's rhythm and its key levels. This chapter covers the wave structure and the rules it must obey, the character of each wave, how to use Fibonacci retracements and extensions, and the idea of confluence with support and resistance — and closes with their limits, chiefly how subjective they can be.
Elliott wave theory was put forward in the 1930s by Ralph Nelson Elliott, an American accountant. Elliott believed that price movements follow recurring patterns driven by alternating optimism and pessimism among participants, and organised them into a cycle of five waves in the direction of the trend (the impulse) and three waves that correct it.
In a rising market, waves 1, 3 and 5 move up and waves 2 and 4 pull back, forming five waves of advance, followed by a correction in three waves, A, B and C. In the diagram, the price rises from 0 to wave 5 with higher highs and higher lows, then falls in three waves, A, B and C.
The wave structure is said to be fractal, or nested: a large wave 1 contains five smaller waves, and a large wave A contains smaller waves too. One wave on a weekly chart may break into five waves on a daily chart, so the unit you count changes with the timeframe.
Five Impulse Waves and a Three-Wave Correction (A, B, C)
From 0 to wave 5 the price rises in five waves with higher highs and higher lows, then falls in three waves, A, B and C. Wave 2 stays above the start of wave 1, wave 3 is the longest, and wave 4 stays above wave 1's high.
Schematic for explanation only. Not a real instrument, price or statistic.
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This page is general educational content. It does not recommend buying or selling any specific security, and the methods and tendencies described do not guarantee future results. Make your own investment decisions.